When flexibility beats fixed routes: Quantifying microtransit efficiency-emission trade-offs using AMOID

Microtransit is emerging as a key solution for short-distance travel, yet the efficiency-environmental trade-offs between demand-responsive and fixed-route systems remain unclear. We introduce AMOID, a data-driven model leveraging individual travel trajectories to automate hybrid system planning and evaluation. Departing from aggregate data methods, AMOID tailors solutions to individual demand, considering multi-modal collaboration. In Tampa, Florida, demand-responsive microtransit achieves 229% higher operational efficiency, 183% more ridership, 40% lower greenhouse gas emissions than fixed-route systems. However, fixed-route systems dominate when demand exceeds 800 trips/(day·mile²). Operational scale dynamically shifts these thresholds: reducing the fleet by half lowers the efficiency crossover threshold for fixed-route dominance by 40–46%; conversely, expanding the service area by 135% decreases the threshold by 60%. These findings reveal how demand and operational scale mediate modal efficiency, providing insights for planners to optimize microtransit deployment. AMOID bridges the gap between theoretical models and practical decision-making, enabling sustainable urban mobility.