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Utilizing Machine Learning and SHAP Values for Improved and Transparent Energy Usage Predictions

  • Faisal Ghazi Beshaw
  • , Thamir Hassan Atyia
  • , Mohd Fadzli Mohd Salleh
  • , Mohamad Khairi Ishak
  • , Abdul Sattar Din
  • Universiti Sains Malaysia
  • University of Tikrit

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

The significance of precise energy usage forecasts has been highlighted by the increasing need for sustainability and energy efficiency across a range of industries. In order to improve the precision and openness of energy consumption projections, this study investigates the combination of machine learning (ML) methods with Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values. The study evaluates three distinct models: the first is a Linear Regressor, the second is a Support Vector Regressor, and the third is a Decision Tree Regressor, which was scaled up to a Random Forest Regressor/Additions made were the third one which was Regressor which was extended to a Random Forest Regressor. These models were deployed with the use of Shareable, Plot-interpretable Explainable Artificial Intelligence techniques, to improve trust in the AI. The findings suggest that our developed models are superior to the conventional models discussed in prior studies; with high Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values being close to perfection. In detail, the Random Forest Regressor shows the MAE of 0.001 for predicting the house prices whereas the SVR gives 0.21 of MAE and 0.24 RMSE. Such outcomes reflect the possibility of optimizing the use of the promoted advanced AI models with the use of Explainable AI for more accurate prediction of energy consumption and at the same time for the models’ decision-making procedures’ explanation. In addition to increasing prediction accuracy, this strategy gives stakeholders comprehensible insights, which facilitates improved decision-making and fosters confidence in AI-powered energy solutions. The outcomes show how well ML and SHAP work together to enhance prediction performance and guarantee transparency in energy usage projections.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3553-3583
Number of pages31
JournalComputers, Materials and Continua
Volume83
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 2025

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

  1. SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
    SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy
  2. SDG 12 - Responsible Consumption and Production
    SDG 12 Responsible Consumption and Production
  3. SDG 17 - Partnerships for the Goals
    SDG 17 Partnerships for the Goals

Keywords

  • Renewable energy consumption
  • decision trees
  • energy modeling
  • explainable AI
  • forecasting
  • machine learning
  • random forest
  • support vector machine

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