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Stationary distribution and density function expression for a stochastic SIQRS epidemic model with temporary immunity

  • China University of Petroleum (East China)
  • King Abdulaziz University
  • Quaid-I-Azam University

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

53 Scopus citations

Abstract

Recently, considering the temporary immunity of individuals who have recovered from certain infectious diseases, Liu et al. (Phys A Stat Mech Appl 551:124152, 2020) proposed and studied a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model with logistic growth. For a more realistic situation, the effects of quarantine strategies and stochasticity should be taken into account. Hence, our paper focuses on a stochastic susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered-susceptible epidemic model with temporary immunity. First, by means of the Khas’minskii theory and Lyapunov function approach, we construct a critical value R0S corresponding to the basic reproduction number R of the deterministic system. Moreover, we prove that there is a unique ergodic stationary distribution if R0S>1. Focusing on the results of Zhou et al. (Chaos Soliton Fractals 137:109865, 2020), we develop some suitable solving theories for the general four-dimensional Fokker–Planck equation. The key aim of the present study is to obtain the explicit density function expression of the stationary distribution under R0S>1. It should be noted that the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution together with the unique exact probability density function can reveal all the dynamical properties of disease persistence in both epidemiological and statistical aspects. Next, some numerical simulations together with parameter analyses are shown to support our theoretical results. Last, through comparison with other articles, results are discussed and the main conclusions are highlighted.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)931-955
Number of pages25
JournalNonlinear Dynamics
Volume105
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2021
Externally publishedYes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

  1. SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
    SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

  • Density function
  • Ergodic stationary distribution
  • Fokker–Planck equation
  • Stochastic SIQRS epidemic model
  • Temporary immunity

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