Modeling COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak using Fractional-Order Systems

Recently, many nonlinear systems have been proposed to introduce the population dynamics of COVID-19. In this paper, we extend different physical conditions of the growth by employing fractional calculus. We propose a new fractional-order version for one of recently forms of the SEIR model. This version, which is established in view of the Caputo fractional-order differential operator, is numerically solved based on the Generalized Euler Method (GEM). Several numerical results reveal the impact of the fractional-order values on the established disease model. To help make a decline in the total of individuals infected by such pandemic, a new compartment is added to the proposed model; namely, the disease prevention compartment that includes the use of face masks, gloves and sterilizers. In view of such modification, it turned out that the performed addition to the fractional-order COVID-19 model yields a significant improvement in reducing the risk of COVID-19 spread.